today : if you gotta go, oh...

I can't believe they didn't see it coming. I can't believe they allowed it to happen. They opened the Pandoras Box and now I fear they will never manage to jam the lid back on.

In 1997, when Labour came to power I was stunningly impressed by their ability to avoid the pitfalls of government. They appeared to have learned from the Tories and were putting those lessons to exemplary use.

But now it's all a mess. Forget the fact that people have been caught with their pants down, that there are whiffs of incompetence. All governments run into trouble - that's the nature of huge organisations. The mess is merely a strategic one, borne of one error.

Whoever advised Mr Blair to signal his intention to stand down made a basic and fundamental mistake. It immediately put blood in the water. They forgot that to maintain power and popularity you have to play a three dimensional strategy with short medium and long games. You must also factor in all the variables and certainties.

Now I can't believe that nobody realised this. Actually, change that. I can believe that nobody realised this. As far as I can gather, the qualification to be a close adviser to the government is where you went to school and university, not whether you have political strategic experience and/or wisdom. I guess if you are twenty five it's really difficult to a. remember mistakes made in the past or b. picture what ten years might look like. After all, ten years ago you weren't worrying about wars and refugees or economic strategy, you were worried about passing your grade four piano exams and the fact that you have a date on Friday and a pimple on Thursday.

To announce a finite premiership for Blair was to keep the fires of rebellion smouldering. It was a poor long game strategy. Forget the Brownites, there always were fifty or so MPs who were only grudgingly part of the New Labour Project. These same fifty or so were easily hidden in a massive majority and seemingly forgotten about. They are also probably the same ones who are professional MPs but serial underachievers, fearful of losing their power and position. They were primed to attack whenever the opportunity arose. The strategists forgot this and didn't remember how even the Thatcher loyalists stabbed their heroine in the back when they were cornered and felt threatened by the fear of being voted out..

The seond thing the strategists forgot is that, however it looks, the establishment just doesn't like the labour party. Even in its centre right incarnation it is still a little too left wing for comfort. They only like power that is based in protecting their wealth and influence. At best, they put up with New Labour. Characters like Murdoch courted Blair, but actually it was the other way around. Blair (and Brown) courted them in the face of threats of non-endorsement. The project was to keep Labour on their side until their preferred option - The Tories, whose core value is maintaining the wealth and power structure - were rebuilt.

I have already written about how politics is Tv these days and has to behave according to the same rules. You would not announce that Gandolfini was going to leave the Sopranos towards the end of next season. It'd spoil the surprise. The press would look for signs of his performance winding down and speculate on the way that he would be killed off. Talk amongst the acting community would be of who might replace him. And when. And how.

The short game is to deflect crises. These always arise. But Blair now has a constant undertone beneath the daily tune of his short game. When will he go? Will this be the tipping point? Maybe we can make it happen now? - that'd be a good story.